Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna Prediction, Stats and Betting Preview

Deportivo La Coruna are the preferred result in BetAttack's numbers. The home win probability is 63.0%, while the draw is set at 19.5% and an Osasuna victory at 17.5%. The expected goals figures point to 2.029227 for Deportivo and 1.057597 for Osasuna, for a projected total of 3.086824. Those figures support the case for goals without turning expected goals into an exact score prediction. Over 2.5 goals has a 59.6% probability, narrowly ahead of Both Teams To Score Yes at 56.7%.

Deportivo's last five matches have produced seven goals for and eight against, an average of 1.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per match. Their record has been difficult to trust, with three defeats in that sequence, although the most recent outing ended in a 3-0 Copa del Rey win away to Auriense. In their five-match sample, both teams scored in three games, while three also went over 2.5 goals. Deportivo kept one clean sheet and failed to score once. The available underlying figures come from only two matches, so they should be treated as a smaller sample: 0.14 expected goals, 0.04 opponent expected goals, 3 shots and 1.5 shots on target per match.

Osasuna have scored 11 and conceded eight across their last five matches, averaging 2.2 goals for and 1.6 against. Their recent sequence includes a 6-0 cup win over Atletico Calatayud, a 2-0 home victory against Racing Santander and defeats to Sevilla and Real Betis, alongside a 1-1 draw with Rayo Vallecano. Both teams scored in two of those five matches, and two went over 2.5 goals. Osasuna recorded two clean sheets and failed to score once. Their underlying sample is broader in several categories, covering four matches: 6.5 shots per game, 2 shots on target, 0.77 expected goals and 0.59 opponent expected goals. Those numbers add attacking substance to a team that has scored 11 times in its recent five-match run, although the cup result forms part of that record.

The main contrast is between Deportivo's stronger match probability and Osasuna's better recent points return. Deportivo have four points from their last five matches, compared with seven for Osasuna, but the home side is still given a 63.0% chance of winning. The expected goals split is also notable. Deportivo's projected figure is 2.029227, almost twice Osasuna's 1.057597. That gives the hosts the stronger attacking projection for this fixture, while the combined expected-goals total of 3.086824 keeps the over 2.5 goals market in focus. There is less certainty around some of the detailed form statistics because the samples are limited. Deportivo's corners, shots and possession averages are based on two matches, while Osasuna's corresponding figures generally use three or four. They can provide context, but the match probabilities remain the clearest guide.

A high scoring game has a slight statistical advantage in the probabilities. Over 2.5 goals is rated at 59.6%, against 40.4% for under 2.5. BetAttack's expected-goals total is 3.086824, which is consistent with the preference for the over line. Both Teams To Score Yes is also favoured at 56.7%, compared with 43.3% for No. The recent form offers mixed but relevant support: Deportivo have seen both teams score in three of their last five matches, while Osasuna have done so in two. The two teams have each failed to score once in that five-match sample. The goals outlook is therefore positive without being overwhelming. Over 2.5 goals has the higher probability of the two goals related selections, while BTTS Yes remains a qualifying option at the available odds.

Three BetAttack selections qualify for this fixture. The strongest match result angle is Deportivo La Coruna to win, available from Bet365 at 2.15. The home win probability is 63.0%, with fair odds of 1.5869 in the supplied assessment, giving the selection a substantial gap between the assessed probability and the bookmaker price. Over 2.5 goals is also a qualifying selection with Bet365 at 2.20. Its probability is 59.6%, compared with fair odds of 1.6779. The recent goal records and the projected total of 3.086824 both support the direction of the market. The third qualifying selection is Both Teams To Score Yes at 1.95 with Bet365. That outcome is rated at 56.7%, with fair odds of 1.7639. Deportivo's BTTS rate across the last five is 60%, while Osasuna's is 40%, so this is a more balanced angle than the home win but still clears the qualifying threshold.

Deportivo La Coruna are the clear statistical choice in the match winner market, despite Osasuna bringing the better recent five-match points return. The home side's 63.0% win probability and projected 2.029227 expected goals make them the central prediction. The goals markets add further interest. Over 2.5 goals has a 59.6% probability, and Both Teams To Score Yes stands at 56.7%. All three selections qualify at the supplied Bet365 odds: Deportivo La Coruna to win at 2.15, Over 2.5 goals at 2.20 and Both Teams To Score Yes at 1.95.