Venezia vs Udinese Prediction, Stats and Betting Preview

Venezia are rated as the more likely winner, but this is far from a dominant home selection. Their win probability is 46.2%, compared with 32.2% for Udinese and 21.6% for the draw. That gives Venezia the edge, although the gap is not large enough to make the match winner market one of the qualifying selections. The expected-goals figures point to an open contest rather than a game dominated by one team. Venezia's expected goals figure is 1.796373 and Udinese's is 1.502317, producing a total of 3.29869. Those numbers support the stronger outlook for goals markets without representing an exact score prediction.

Venezia's recent record is one win and four defeats from five matches, yielding three points. They have scored two goals and conceded seven, averaging 0.4 goals for and 1.4 against across that sample. Their attacking output has been limited, with Venezia failing to score in three of those five fixtures. The most recent run includes three consecutive 1-0 or 2-0 defeats before a 1-0 home win over Napoli, followed by a 3-1 loss away to Atalanta. Both teams scored in only one of the five matches, while over 2.5 goals also landed once. That recent history is notably quieter than the broader match projection, so the home side's form alone does not make the goals angle straightforward.

Udinese have drawn one and lost four of their last five, collecting one point. They have scored three goals and conceded 12, with averages of 0.6 goals for and 2.4 against. Like Venezia, they have failed to score in three of those five matches. Their recent results have included a 5-2 defeat to Roma, a goalless draw with Parma, a 2-0 loss against AC Milan, a 3-0 defeat to Lecce and a 2-1 loss to Torino. Both teams scored in two of those matches, while over 2.5 goals landed three times. Udinese's defensive record is the weaker of the two recent records, despite their overall attacking numbers remaining modest.

The underlying figures provide a contrast with the recent scorelines. Venezia's detailed averages include 1.25 shots per match across four available matches, 0.5 shots on target across four, and 0.09 expected goals across four. Their average possession is 39.5% from four matches. Udinese average five shots from four available matches and 0.6 shots on target from five. Their possession average is 52.2% across five matches, while their expected-goals average is 0.2 from five and their opponent expected-goals average is 0.7 from five. These samples are not identical across every metric, so the figures should be read in their stated context rather than treated as like-for-like five-match averages. The recent defensive numbers also favour caution when assessing the match winner. Venezia have conceded seven goals in five, while Udinese have conceded 12. BetAttack's home win probability is higher, but the outcome market remains more finely balanced than the goals projections.

Both teams to score is given a 64.8% probability, making Yes the stronger side of that market. Over 2.5 goals is also favoured at 64.0%, despite Venezia's recent run producing just one over in five matches. Udinese's recent record has been more supportive of goals, with over 2.5 landing in three of their last five. The expected-goals total of 3.29869 is the main reason the broader projection is more positive about goal activity than Venezia's recent results might imply. BTTS Yes and over 2.5 goals are related but not identical outcomes, and both qualify separately at the supplied Bet365 odds.

Both Teams To Score, Yes qualifies at Bet365's 1.62. BetAttack puts the probability at 64.8%, with fair odds of 1.5422. The listed bookmaker odds are therefore higher than the supplied fair price, with a 7.053 percentage-point edge and expected value of 0.050437. Over 2.5 goals is the stronger value position of the two qualifying markets. Bet365 offer 1.80, while the supplied probability is 64.0% and the fair odds are 1.5617. That represents an 11.2206 percentage-point edge and expected value of 0.152558. The home win is not a qualifying selection even though Venezia have the highest individual match outcome probability at 46.2%. Udinese's away win probability is 32.2%, and the draw is 21.6%, leaving the result market without enough statistical support under the supplied criteria.

Venezia have the narrow edge in the match prediction, but their recent attacking record makes the result difficult to trust on its own. Udinese's defensive record has been poorer over the last five, and the wider projection points towards a game with enough attacking output for both teams to score and at least three goals. The two qualifying selections are Both Teams To Score, Yes at 1.62 with Bet365, and Over 2.5 Goals at 1.80 with Bet365. The over 2.5 market carries the larger supplied edge, while BTTS Yes is also supported by a probability of 64.8%.