Tarancón vs Levante Prediction, Stats and Betting Preview

Tarancón have the edge in the match winner probabilities, although the margin is not overwhelming. Their 49.7% home win probability is 21 percentage points above Levante's 28.7% away win probability. The draw sits at 21.7%, leaving a meaningful possibility of a closely contested cup tie. The expected goals figures point to a game with attacking potential, at 1.819 for Tarancón and 1.384 for Levante. Those are expected-goals estimates, not an exact score prediction. BetAttack also gives both teams scoring a 62.8% probability and over 2.5 goals a 62.1% probability.

Tarancón's recent record is two wins, two draws and one defeat from five matches. They have scored six goals and conceded six across that run, giving supplied averages of 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match. Their form has been mixed rather than dominant. Tarancón began the sequence with a 1-0 home win over Socuéllamos and followed it with a 2-1 away victory against Quintanar del Rey. They then drew 1-1 at home to Villarrubia and 2-2 away to Noblejas before losing 2-0 at home to La Solana. Both teams scored in three of those five matches, representing 60%, while over 2.5 goals landed in two games, or 40%. Tarancón kept one clean sheet and failed to score once. No detailed averages are supplied for their shots, possession, corners or expected goals, so those areas cannot be used to make a direct statistical comparison with Levante.

Levante come into the tie with one win, two draws and two defeats from their last five matches. They have scored five goals and conceded six, with supplied averages of 1.0 goal scored and 1.2 conceded per match. Their sequence includes a 1-1 draw away to Deportivo La Coruña, a 3-1 home win against Athletic Club, a 1-2 defeat at Real Sociedad, a 0-2 home loss to Atlético Madrid and a goalless draw away to Celta Vigo. Levante have therefore failed to score in two of those five matches, while both teams scored in three, also 60%. Over 2.5 goals occurred in two games, or 40%, and there was one clean sheet. The available detailed data for Levante includes an expected-goals average of 0.1 from five matches, with opponent expected goals at 0.23. Their recorded averages also include 0.8 shots, 0.2 shots on target, 40.6% possession and 0.8 corners per match, all from five matches. These figures come from a small recent sample and should be read in that context.

The recent goal records are closely matched defensively: both Tarancón and Levante have conceded 1.2 goals per match across their respective five-game samples. Tarancón have scored at a slightly higher rate, averaging 1.2 compared with Levante's 1.0. The recent BTTS and over 2.5 trends are identical for both teams. Each has seen both teams score in three of five matches, or 60%, and each has recorded over 2.5 goals in two of five, or 40%. Tarancón's single clean sheet and Levante's single clean sheet also leave little to separate them in that particular trend. The broader prediction numbers are more open than those recent over 2.5 records. Over 2.5 goals is given a 62.1% probability, while BTTS Yes is at 62.8%. At the same time, the underlying data quality is graded low and the prediction carries low confidence, which is important when weighing those projections.

BetAttack leans towards an open game, with BTTS Yes at 62.8% and Over 2.5 Goals at 62.1%. The expected goals total is 3.202907, made up of 1.819355 for Tarancón and 1.383552 for Levante. These figures describe the attacking expectation in the numbers and should not be converted into an exact scoreline. The recent form picture is less emphatic. Both sides have recorded BTTS in 60% of their last five matches, but over 2.5 goals has occurred in only 40% of each team's sample. Tarancón's latest match ended in a 2-0 defeat, while Levante's latest fixture was a 0-0 draw, so the most recent results do not point in one direction on their own. That leaves the projected goal markets with an attacking lean, but not one supported by a deep or consistent statistical base. The probabilities can frame the match, rather than settle it.

No market qualifies as a BetAttack selection. The reason is not simply the direction of the probabilities. The betting assessment marks all seven analysed markets as failing to qualify because of insufficient sample. That applies even where a price appears to offer value against the probability estimate. For example, BTTS Yes is listed at 2.38 with a 62.8% model probability, while Under 2.5 Goals is listed at 3.5 with a 37.9% probability. Neither becomes a BetAttack selection because the required statistical qualification is not met. The match winner market also carries a clear home lean, but Tarancón's 49.7% probability is still below the level of a decisive forecast, and the low confidence label reinforces the need for caution. The sensible reading is that Tarancón are favoured in the numbers, while the betting markets remain unsuitable for a formal selection.

Tarancón are the statistical favourites for this Copa del Rey tie, with a 49.7% home win probability against 28.7% for Levante and 21.7% for the draw. Their recent record is also stronger, with eight points from five matches compared with Levante's five. However, the teams share similar recent scoring trends, and the available detailed data is limited for Tarancón. BetAttack's prediction confidence is low, so the home advantage should not be overstated. The goal projections lean towards BTTS and over 2.5 goals, but those markets also fail the required qualification test. No market qualifies as a BetAttack selection.