Scotland vs FYR Macedonia Prediction, Stats and Betting Preview

Scotland have the stronger position in the BetAttack probabilities and are the more likely winners at Hampden Park. Their 56.9% home win probability is comfortably above FYR Macedonia's 18.9% away figure, although the model data quality is graded low and the prediction uses four-match samples for both teams. The expected-goals figures point to Scotland creating more, with 1.569 expected goals compared with 0.852 for FYR Macedonia. Those numbers support a home advantage without creating an exact score prediction. The draw remains a meaningful possibility at 24.2%, so the most appealing selection is the lower total rather than Scotland at the available match-winner price.

Scotland's recent record is mixed. They have scored three goals and conceded eight across their last five matches, averaging 0.6 goals for and 1.6 against. Their only win in that sequence was a 2-0 result away to FYR Macedonia, while they also drew 0-0 with Slovenia. The other three matches ended in defeat, including losses to Slovenia, Switzerland and Brazil. Scotland have failed to score in three of those five matches, a trend reflected in their 60% failed-to-score rate. Both teams scored in only one of the five games, while Scotland kept two clean sheets. Their recent over 2.5 record stands at three matches from five, so the form record alone does not point decisively in one direction for the goals line. The underlying attacking numbers are modest. Scotland average 6 shots per match from a four-match sample and 1.4 shots on target across five matches. Their average possession is 41.8%, while the supplied expected-goals average is 1.04 from a one-match sample. That limited xG sample should be treated cautiously rather than as a broad form trend.

FYR Macedonia's recent run is considerably more concerning. They have lost all five of their last matches, scoring no goals and conceding 14. Their average is therefore 0 goals for and 2.8 against across that five-match sequence, and they have failed to score in every game. The attacking output has been particularly limited. FYR Macedonia average 2.2 shots and 0.4 shots on target per match, while opponents average 8.4 shots against them. They have also kept no clean sheets during the five-match run. Their over 2.5 record is three from five, but that has largely come alongside defeats in which they conceded at least three goals. Possession has averaged 45%, which is higher than Scotland's 41.8% figure, but the chance creation numbers are much less productive. FYR Macedonia have no supplied expected-goals average, so the comparison should remain focused on their recorded results, shots and goals rather than inferred xG performance.

The clearest statistical gap is in recent defensive and attacking output. Scotland average 0.6 goals per game and concede 1.6, whereas FYR Macedonia average 0 goals and concede 2.8. Scotland also average 1.4 shots on target, compared with 0.4 for the visitors. The corner figures point in the same broad direction. Scotland average 2.6 corners for and 2.2 against, while FYR Macedonia average 0.8 corners for and 4.6 against. Scotland's average of 0.4 yellow cards is higher than FYR Macedonia's 0.2, although those figures do not create a qualifying card market here. There is also a notable difference in the recent clean-sheet records. Scotland have kept two clean sheets in five matches, while FYR Macedonia have none. That aligns with the visitors' record of failing to score in all five recent games, although the final match probabilities remain more balanced than those historical form figures alone might suggest.

The goals outlook leans towards a controlled total. BetAttack gives Under 2.5 Goals a 56.4% probability, compared with 43.6% for Over 2.5. Expected goals total 2.421687, with Scotland contributing 1.569341 and FYR Macedonia 0.852346. Both Teams To Score is less decisive. BTTS Yes stands at 45.4%, while BTTS No is marginally higher at 54.6%. Scotland's recent BTTS rate is 20%, and FYR Macedonia have seen BTTS in none of their last five matches. However, the model probability for BTTS No is not strong enough to qualify at the supplied price, so it should not be presented as a BetAttack selection.

Under 2.5 Goals is the only market that qualifies as a BetAttack selection. Bet365 offers odds of 2.15, against fair odds of 1.7729 from a 56.4% probability. The supplied expected value is 0.212714, with a 0.121747 edge over the market probability. Scotland are the likelier winners, but their Bet365 match-winner odds of 1.18 do not qualify. The home win probability is 56.9%, yet the available odds are below the required value threshold. FYR Macedonia and the draw also fail to qualify despite their higher listed prices, because their model probabilities are below the relevant threshold. The same distinction applies to the BTTS market. Both selections carry some argument from the recent form, but neither reaches the qualification standard. The betting case is therefore narrower than the match prediction: Scotland have the edge, while Under 2.5 Goals offers the qualifying value.

Scotland deserve favouritism after FYR Macedonia's five straight defeats and failure to score in each of those matches. The home side's own recent attacking record has been inconsistent, though, and the low data quality means the win prediction should not be overstated. The better supported betting angle is Under 2.5 Goals at 2.15 with Bet365. It carries a 56.4% BetAttack probability and is the only market to meet both the statistical and value requirements. Scotland remain the more likely winners, but the available home price does not qualify.