Parma vs Udinese Prediction, Stats and Betting Preview

Parma are narrow favourites, with a 41.0% home win probability. Udinese are close behind at 36.3%, while the draw is rated at 22.7%. The difference between the two teams is therefore small, and Parma's home advantage does not translate into a dominant result projection. The expected-goals figures point to an open contest rather than a clearly one-sided game. Parma are projected for 1.61 expected goals and Udinese for 1.51, giving a combined expected-goals figure of 3.12. Those numbers support the view that both teams can contribute in attack, while also leaving the result itself difficult to separate with confidence.

Parma's recent record is poor on results, with one win and four losses from five matches. They have scored four goals and conceded 11 in that sequence, averaging 0.8 goals for and 2.2 against. Every one of those five matches went over 2.5 goals, while Both Teams To Score landed in three of them. There have been problems at both ends. Parma have kept no clean sheets in the five-match sample and failed to score twice. Their recent attacking numbers include an average of 4.2 shots and 1.4 shots on target per match, alongside 0.38 expected goals across the same five-match sample. Opponents have averaged 10.4 shots and 0.89 expected goals. The corner figures come from four matches rather than the full five: Parma average 1.5 corners for and 4.5 against. Their possession average is 47.2%, and the team has averaged 0.6 yellow cards across the five matches. The overall picture is of a side that has struggled to create consistently and has also allowed opponents to enjoy the better attacking output.

Udinese have also been short of results, going without a win in their last five recorded matches. Their sequence contains one draw and four defeats, with two goals scored and nine conceded. That works out at 0.4 goals per match for and 1.8 against. Both Teams To Score occurred in two of the five matches, while Over 2.5 Goals landed twice. Udinese have failed to score in three of those matches and have not kept a clean sheet. Their attacking profile is more active in some of the available underlying numbers, with 14 shots per match across a three-match sample and 1.75 shots on target across four matches. Their expected-goals average is 0.72 from four matches, while opponents have averaged 1.14 expected goals over that sample. The supporting data is uneven in coverage, so it should be read carefully. Udinese's corner averages of six for and 1.67 against are based on three matches, while their 57.25% possession average comes from four. The side's recent results remain the clearest concern, particularly given the low goal return and three scoreless outings.

The match winner probabilities show why this is not an obvious result call. Parma's 41.0% chance of winning is only 4.7 percentage points above Udinese's 36.3%, with the draw at 22.7%. There is a much clearer attacking angle in the combined projection, where expected goals reach 3.12. Parma's recent matches have been consistently open, with all five going over 2.5 goals. Udinese's equivalent trend is less emphatic, with only two of their last five doing so, and one of those five matches was a club friendly. Even so, the underlying match projection favours goals, and the two teams' defensive records offer reasons for that stance. Neither side has recorded a clean sheet in the relevant five-match form sample. Parma have conceded 11 goals and Udinese nine, although Udinese's attack has scored only twice in the same period. The probabilities therefore combine a high-scoring overall expectation with a fixture that could remain competitive.

Both Teams To Score is rated at 62.4%, making it the stronger of the two main goals outcomes in BetAttack's probabilities. That projection sits above the 37.6% probability for Both Teams To Score No. Parma have scored in three of their last five matches, while Udinese have scored in two, so the recent form is not uniformly supportive of both sides finding the net. The projected attacking contribution from each team is the reason the market remains attractive despite those mixed scoring records. Over 2.5 Goals has a 60.4% probability, compared with 39.6% for Under 2.5 Goals. Parma's five-match run provides a strong recent over trend, although Udinese's sample is more restrained. The combined expected-goals figure of 3.12 gives the over case a statistical foundation beyond the raw results. These are not identical arguments. Both Teams To Score needs a goal from each side, while Over 2.5 Goals can succeed through an uneven scoreline. BetAttack's probabilities favour both outcomes, but the available prices are central to why they qualify as selections.

Both Teams To Score, Yes qualifies at Bet365 odds of 1.91. BetAttack puts the probability at 62.4%, with fair odds of 1.60. The available price is therefore materially bigger than the fair odds calculation, and the market carries a positive expected value of 0.192. Over 2.5 Goals also qualifies at Bet365 odds of 2.20. The probability is 60.4%, with fair odds of 1.66 and expected value of 0.329. That is the larger value figure of the two qualifying selections. Parma's record of five consecutive over 2.5 matches adds recent trend support, while the fixture projection reaches 3.12 expected goals. The match winner market is less appealing from a selection perspective. Parma have the highest individual result probability at 41.0%, but that probability is below the required qualifying threshold in the supplied market assessment. Udinese are rated at 36.3% and the draw at 22.7%, leaving no sufficiently strong result angle among the available options.

Parma have a small home edge, but the result probabilities are too close to make either team the central betting focus. The more convincing angle is goals: both sides have defensive vulnerabilities in their recent form, the projected total expected goals is 3.12, and BetAttack rates Both Teams To Score at 62.4% and Over 2.5 Goals at 60.4%. The qualifying selections are Both Teams To Score, Yes at 1.91 with Bet365, and Over 2.5 Goals at 2.20 with Bet365. Neither outcome is guaranteed, but both offer a stronger combination of probability and available price than the match winner options.