Liverpool vs Arsenal Prediction, Stats and Betting Preview

Arsenal look better equipped to keep this close. Their recent defensive record is the strongest form detail in the fixture, with three clean sheets from five matches and an average of 0.6 goals conceded per game. Liverpool have scored freely, averaging 3 goals per match across their last five, but they have also allowed 1.6 per game. The probabilities reflect that tension. Liverpool's home advantage keeps them firmly in contention, yet Arsenal's away win probability of 45.1% is the highest of the three match outcomes. A draw at 26.2% is also substantial, so this is not a fixture where the numbers support a confident home or away conclusion.

Liverpool come into the match with 13 points from their last five games, including four victories and one draw. They have scored 15 goals in that run, an average of 3 per match, and have failed to score in none of those five fixtures. Their attacking output has been accompanied by a more open defensive profile, however, with eight goals conceded and only one clean sheet. The recent results include a 2-0 win over Brighton, a 4-3 victory against Villarreal and a 2-1 success at Brentford. Liverpool also drew 1-1 with Chelsea in the League Cup before this fixture. Both teams scored in four of their five matches, giving Liverpool an 80% BTTS rate in that sample, while three of the five games went over 2.5 goals. The underlying recent averages supplied for Liverpool are based on different sample sizes, so they need to be treated carefully. Expected goals are available for five matches, while shots data covers four and corners data only two. That limited coverage makes the five-match results and goal record the clearest form indicators.

Arsenal's last five matches have produced 11 points from three wins and two draws. They have scored nine goals, averaging 1.8 per game, and conceded three, an average of 0.6. Like Liverpool, they have scored in every match in the five-game sample, but their defensive record has been considerably tighter. Arsenal kept clean sheets against Everton, Nottingham Forest and Lille. Their other two matches finished 1-1 with Fleetwood Town in the League Cup and 2-2 away to Bayern München. Both teams scored in two of the five fixtures, while two matches went over 2.5 goals. Arsenal have averaged 62.8% possession across the five-match sample, compared with Liverpool's 54%. That possession figure does not settle the outcome, especially at Anfield, but it adds to the picture of an away side that has generally controlled more of the ball recently. Arsenal's shots average is based on three matches, and their expected-goals average is based on four, so neither should be treated as a complete five-match measure.

The strongest case for Liverpool is their recent scoring rate: 15 goals in five matches, compared with Arsenal's nine. The strongest case for Arsenal is defensive, with the visitors conceding 0.6 per game against Liverpool's 1.6. Liverpool's recent BTTS rate is 80%, while Arsenal's is 40%. That split is important because the overall fixture probabilities do not strongly favour either BTTS outcome: Yes is set at 49.1% and No at 50.9%. Arsenal's three clean sheets in five matches provide more support for the No side than Liverpool's recent attacking form provides for Yes, but the difference is too small for that market to qualify. The match winner probabilities are similarly cautious. Arsenal are on 45.1%, Liverpool on 28.7%, and the draw on 26.2%. Arsenal are therefore the most likely individual outcome, but not by enough to make that market a BetAttack selection.

The goals market offers the clearest direction. Under 2.5 goals has a 55.8% probability, compared with 44.2% for Over 2.5. The projected total of 2.445428 expected goals supports a game that could remain below the three-goal line, even though Liverpool's recent matches have often been productive. Recent results provide arguments on both sides. Liverpool have seen three of their last five matches go over 2.5 goals, including 4-3 against Villarreal and 6-3 against Lask Linz. Arsenal, by contrast, have had two overs in five, with three of their matches ending with two goals or fewer. Their defensive record also makes a more controlled game plausible. BTTS is much harder to separate. Liverpool's four BTTS results from five point towards both teams scoring, while Arsenal have had that outcome in only two of five. BetAttack puts No at 50.9% and Yes at 49.1%, which is effectively a marginal split rather than a strong betting view.

Under 2.5 goals is the only qualifying BetAttack selection. Bet365 offers 1.91, while the supplied fair odds are 1.7925, giving the selection a 55.8% probability and positive expected value of 0.065562. The match winner market is less convincing despite Arsenal's 45.1% probability and quoted Bet365 odds of 2.45. The probability remains below the required threshold for qualification. Neither BTTS option qualifies either: No has a 50.9% probability, while Yes stands at 49.1%. That leaves the goal line as the most suitable angle. It is not without risk, particularly given Liverpool's 15 goals across their last five matches, but the combination of Arsenal's defensive record, the visitors' lower recent BTTS rate and the 55.8% Under probability gives it the clearest support among the analysed markets.

Arsenal have the statistical edge, but Liverpool's unbeaten five-match run and strong scoring record make this a finely balanced contest at Anfield. The visitors' defensive numbers are more persuasive than the match winner probabilities are decisive, so the away side should be viewed as favoured rather than dominant. The clearest conclusion comes from the goals market. Under 2.5 goals has the highest qualifying probability at 55.8%, with Bet365's 1.91 price above the supplied fair odds of 1.7925. It is the only BetAttack selection for Liverpool vs Arsenal.